Free tool
Fold Equity Calculator
Should you bluff? Enter the pot, your bet, your equity when called, and how often villain folds — get the EV and a clear verdict.
Chips in the middle before your bet
How much you're betting or raising
Your win % against villain's calling range (0 for pure bluff)
How often you think villain folds to this bet
EV of betting
+$55.50
per bet
Fold % to break even
0.0%
(any)
Verdict
✓Betting is profitable (+EV)
Surplus fold %: +50.0%
How fold equity works
Pick up the pot
When villain folds (probability f), you immediately win the current pot. EV when folded = +Pot.
Lose the showdown
When villain calls (probability 1−f), you reach showdown. You win the bigger pot at your equity rate, otherwise you lose your bet.
Add them up
Total EV = f × Pot + (1−f) × (Equity × (Pot + 2·Bet) − Bet). Positive total = +EV bet, negative = stop bluffing.
The formulas
EV = f · Pot + (1−f) · (E · (Pot + 2·Bet) − Bet)
Required fold % (pure bluff, E=0) = Bet / (Pot + Bet)
When you have showdown equity (E > 0), the required fold % is lower — every percent of equity you have makes the bluff cheaper to attempt.
Pure-bluff break-even fold %
Required fold rate for a 0-equity bluff to break even at common sizings.
| Bet size | Required fold % |
|---|---|
| 1/3 pot | 25% |
| 1/2 pot | 33% |
| 2/3 pot | 40% |
| 3/4 pot | 43% |
| Pot-sized | 50% |
| 1.5× overbet | 60% |
| 2× overbet | 67% |
FAQ
When is fold equity most useful?
Semi-bluffs (drawing hands with showdown equity) and turn/river bluffs against capped ranges. Anywhere you're risking chips that don't have to win at showdown.
How do I estimate villain's fold %?
Combine reads, sample sizes, and ranges. Tight players fold more to large bets; loose-passives call too much. Live notes and HUD stats (Fold to F-bet, Fold to Turn Bet) help on online sites.
What's a typical equity when called?
For pure bluffs, 0%. For semi-bluffs with a flush draw, ~30%. For combo draws (flush + straight), ~45%. The number changes how often you need a fold to break even.
Need a pot odds calculator?
If you're on the defending side and want to know if calling is profitable, use the Pot Odds Calculator.
Open Pot Odds Calculator →