Poker Math · 6
Fold Equity (Bluff Math)
How often opponents must fold for your bluff to print money.
Formula
Break-even Fold % = Bet / (Bet + Pot)
Explanation
A pure bluff makes money when (fold% × pot) > (call% × bet). Solve for the breakeven fold rate. Knowing this number lets you decide whether a bluff is profitable based on opponent tendencies — if you think they'll fold more than the breakeven, fire away.
Example
Setup
Pot has 100. You bet 100 (pot-sized) as a pure bluff.
Calculation
- Required fold % = 100 / (100 + 100) = 50%
- You need opponent to fold ≥ 50% of the time
Conclusion
Pot-sized bluffs are profitable when opponents fold ≥ 50% of the time.
Setup
Pot 100, bet 50 (half-pot) as bluff.
Calculation
- Required fold % = 50 / (50 + 100) = 33%
- Only need opponent to fold 1 in 3 times
Conclusion
Smaller bluffs need fewer folds — that's why beginners overbet bluffs and lose money.
Practice
You bet 75 into a pot of 150 as a pure bluff. How often must opponent fold for this to be break-even?