Poker Math · 3

Expected Value (EV)

The average outcome of a decision repeated many times. The North Star of poker math.

Formula

EV = (Win% × Amount Won) − (Lose% × Amount Lost)

Explanation

EV measures whether a decision is profitable in the long run. Positive EV means you make money over many trials, even if individual results vary. Stop thinking "Did I win this hand?" and start thinking "Was my decision +EV?" — that's the shift to winning poker.

Example

Setup

You are 60% to win a $200 pot if you call $50. Should you call?

Calculation

If you win (60%): you gain $200 → +$120 expected
If you lose (40%): you lose $50 → −$20 expected
EV = $120 − $20 = +$100

Conclusion

Calling is strongly +EV. Even though you'll lose 40% of the time, the average outcome is +$100.

Practice

You're 30% to win a $200 pot. You must call $50. What is the EV of calling?